'Robin Hood in reverse': Low-income losses, wealthy gains expected from GOP megabill

Spending on Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program through 2034 would fall $900 billion and $186 billion— respectively — under the bill, which was before the House of Representatives as of press time Wednesday for it to consider accepting changes approved by the Senate.

The bill is designed to extend tax cuts first created under President Donald Trump in 2017 that have benefited the wealthy. It would result in about 17 million more people without health insurance, according to a projection published Tuesday by the Kaiser Family Foundation, a nonpartisan health policy research group. Dozens of thousands of West Virginians have been projected to lose health insurance under similar versions of the bill, and more than 15% of the state’s population was on SNAP in February.

Sens. Shelley Moore Capito and Jim Justice, both R-W.Va., provided critical support for the bill in statements Tuesday, insisting it would spur economic growth. Justice said in a X post the legislation “establishes common-sense reform to our social programs while protecting those who are most vulnerable.�

Spokespeople for Reps. Carol Miller and Riley Moore, both R-W.Va., did not respond to requests for comment Wednesday on the bill, which voted to approve in a fundamentally similar version in May.

But Moore praised the bill in a Fox Business Channel appearance Wednesday, praising its $175 billion allotment to support border enforcement.

Capito, Justice didn't heed W.Va. group warnings 

The bill would slash Medicaid spending in part by imposing work requirements, increasing the frequency of eligibility determinations and placing new limits on states financing the nonfederal share of Medicaid expenses.

The legislation would shift a substantial share of SNAP benefit costs to states with a new cost-sharing formula linked to payment error rates and narrow exceptions for work requirements for able-bodied adults.

The West Virginia Hospital Association addressed a letter to Capito and Justice last month opposing a previous, similar version of the bill, predicting Medicaid cuts could result in hospitals being forced to reduce services or close, depriving communities of timely access to quality care.

Nearly two dozen West Virginia community groups addressed a letter to Capito and Justice last month urging them to reject the reconciliation package and “instead put forward legislation that puts working families, state budgets, and an economy that works for everyone ahead of tax benefits for the wealthy and corporations.�

Significant wealth redistribution projected

Households with incomes under $18,000 would lose about $970 in 2030 under the bill, partly reflecting Medicaid and SNAP cuts, per the Penn Wharton Budget Model’s analysis released Tuesday.

The income for households making under $18,000 would drop by a median percentage of 6.7% in 2033 under the bill, which would yield the greatest benefits that year for households with incomes of $96,000 to $1.02 million (1.9-2.9% median percentage increases).

Households most impacted by the cuts to Medicaid and SNAP —those with household incomes under $18,000 — would experience the largest losses under the bill, averaging $27,500 lifetime for the working-age population, per the analysis.

In stark contrast, working-age households with incomes above $179,000 would gain an average of more than $65,000 as a result of the bill, according to the analysis.

Working-age households in the middle of income distribution would largely be unaffected, the analysis projected, benefiting from some of the tax cuts but facing a chance of needing spending programs that have been slashed.

The Yale Budget Lab, a nonpartisan policy research center at Yale University, published an analysis Monday similarly projecting changes to taxes as well as Medicaid and SNAP spending in the Senate reconciliation bill would result in a 2.9% drop of about $700 in income for the bottom fifth of incomes, but a 1.9% increase of about $30,000 for the top 1%.

Other projections have warned that power bills would rise under the GOP reconciliation package due to increased capital, fuel and operating expenses amid deep proposed cuts to energy tax credits.  

“We are engaged in Robin Hood in reverse — this body — of stealing from the poor in order to give to the rich, this massive transfer of wealth from the bottom to the top,� Sen. Raphael Warnock, D-Georgia, said in a Senate floor speech Monday.

“This legislation isn’t just a bad idea, it’s a dangerous one,� United Mine Workers of America International president Cecil Roberts said of the GOP’s reconciliation framework in a statement Friday. “It strips resources from the very people who keep our country running; miners, veterans, public servants, and their families, just to give billionaires a bigger tax break.�