The latest earthquake shaking the foundation of college athletics – the move of USC to UCLA to the Big Ten – will spawn dozens of tremors and aftershocks across the landscape. Short of a slice of California falling into the ocean the next time the San Andreas fault ruptures, it’s hard to imagine something with bigger impact originating in Hollywoodland that results in reverberations across the country.

Even the backdoor defections of Oklahoma and Texas from the Big 12 a year ago pale by comparison. At the time, it was viewed as a one-off move – a cash grab by two institutions that have been as duplicitous as the U.S. government in their dealings with Native Americans in the 1800s. But now, the similar backstab from the Los Angeles duo is setting up even more potential movement, with the specter of two dominant conferences with everyone else on the outside looking in.

The paths that could take are many, but today we focus on West Virginia University and the Big 12. What paths are open to both, and which are the most realistic? Are we at an existential turning point as the shock waves spread to every corner of the collegiate sports world?

For West Virginia, the options, and the realistic chances of them occurring, are still pretty much the same as they were a year ago when Texas and OU announced their departures. Were it up to WVU administrators (or Mountaineer fans) alone, joining the ACC would be the preferred option, with proximity to schools, natural rivalries and the ability of fans to travel to road games dominating. However, barring a change in the look-down-the-nose attitude of at least one power broker in that league, West Virginia isn’t going to get an invite to the league that it probably should have been in from its formation in 1953. Unless …

… the ACC loses some members. And that could well be the next big occurrence on this side of the continent. If the Big Ten or SEC decide to expand again, schools such as Clemson, Florida State and North Carolina figure to be top targets. Would the departure of one or more of those be enough to open the doors to WVU?

Maybe. At that point, there would have to be a serious analysis done of which league would be the best for West Virginia. Would a watered-down ACC, even with its travel advantages (something that gets less consideration every year) be better than the the current Big 12?There are points to be made on both sides of that debate, but it’s important to remember that this is not WVU’s choice at the moment. It can’t, despite a million message board posts and barroom conversations, simply decide to join the ACC.

Also, there’s the ACC’s grant of media rights, which extends through 2035. Should WVU, even if it gets an invite, tie itself to a media rights contract that will be in place for more than another decade and severely underpays its members due to the fact that it was signed several years ago, and doesn’t have an escalator clause or other avenue to keep its payouts at least in proximity to other leagues? Without that penalty, Clemson, FSU and UNC would be out the door in a second in response to the conference moves of the past year.

Of course, if the ACC dissolves as an entity, that grant would be out the window, and all bets would be off. A merger of some sort could produce the same result.

Even more remotely, WVU isn’t going to get an invite from the SEC or the Big 10. The aforementioned ACC schools, or Oregon and Washington from the Pac-12, are way ahead of WVU in the pecking order in that regard, and even if both leagues go to 20 teams or more, it’s hard to see West Virginia in either of those lineups, unless a culling occurred and schools like Vanderbilt or Maryland were ejected.

Finally, might the Pac-12 look to expand, and if so, would West Virginia be on that list? The answer to the first question is yes, but it’s also just as likely that the Pac-12 itself will be the subject of poaching or suffer further departures, so joining a league in that sort of peril is problematic. It would also result in even longer trips for WVU athletic teams, and the potential for its next media contract is dim – which is what sparked the departure of USC and UCLA in the first place. For a number of reasons, that option doesn’t appear very appealing.

So, for better or worse, West Virginia is probably best served by hanging with the Big 12, unless some other unexpected move again shifts things drastically. It has to be prepared to move quickly in response to events, and it can try to spearhead action at the conference level and with CFP expansion, both of but for now there’s not a move to be made that makes more sense than standing pat.

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