The operator of the nation’s largest power grid has issued yet another warning about possible electricity shortages.
The cautionary advisory came earlier this month from Aftab Khan, executive vice president of operations at PJM Interconnection, in testimony before the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s annual Reliability Technical Conference. PJM is a regional transmission organization that coordinates the movement of wholesale electricity in all or parts of 13 states, including West Virginia and the District of Columbia, serving 65 million customers.
PJM and other grid operators have been trying to persuade policymakers that, soon, there will not be enough power generated to meet demand. “PJM currently projects a potential shortfall in generation supply by the end of this decade,†Kahn testified.
Kahn told attendees at the conference that the hastened retirement of traditional baseload fuel generation — coal, natural gas and nuclear — and the impact of government policies will cut into the grid’s supply significantly.
“Approximately 40,000 MW of generation will retire between 2022 and 2030, which is approximately 21 percent of PJM’s current 192,000 MW installed generation capacity,†he said.
The problem is that intermittent power generation, like wind and solar, are not going to be able to make up for the shortfall or be as dependable as traditional sources. The challenge is made even greater by the fact that power demand is increasing rapidly.
PJM projects that data-center electricity demand will quadruple in the next 15 years and, by 2039, 16 percent of all the power on the grid will go toward those centers.
“The significant increase in data-center development and the international race toward development of artificial intelligence is also straining the existing grid’s ability to meet this new demand nationwide, especially given the incremental resource additions,†Kahn testified.
Currently, the power use by electric vehicles is negligible. However, PJM projects that it will increase to 11 percent of PJM load by 2039. Additionally, “more electric heating, promoted by government policy, will drive load growth,†according to PJM.
PJM has been steadily reducing carbon emissions, mostly through the retirement of coal generation, without affecting reliability. However, going forward, the transition to lower-carbon sources, combined with the increased demand in electricity, will have consequences.
Hoppy Kercheval hosts “Talkline,†on MetroNews.
